李春顶：亚洲成为贸易集团还有多远

　　本文是第一口勘探进行数值计算德布鲁（1951）系数，并会在自由贸易协定（FTA）生效措施德布鲁距离指示。与此同时，在亚洲的自贸区谈判，以评估亚洲在多大程度上是代孕这使得它在过去十年发展非常快显得尤为重要。本文采用与交易成本十五国的全球一般均衡模型，数值计算的现状和潜力亚洲贸易集团之间德布鲁的距离，以评估这些亚洲自由贸易协定的影响。我们的计算结果表明，所有亚洲相关国家将来自亚洲贸易集团的安排，除非获得这些自由贸易协定只能取消关税。这些国家的收益将会增加非关税减让深处。较大的国家将获得更多的比小国。亚洲自由贸易区，亚洲联盟和RCEP将有利于各成员国比东盟+3以上。全球自由贸易将获得所有国家之最。

　　演讲人简介：李春顶，经济学博士，世界经济与政治研究所副研究员、国际贸易研究室副主任。迄今为止，已在《The World Economy》《Economic Modelling》《China Economic Review》《世界经济》《财贸经济》《数量经济技术经济研究》等国内外期刊发表学术论文60余篇；在《人民日报》《环球时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券时报》等发表财经评论60余篇。 

　　原文：This paper is the first exploration to numerically calculate the Debreu (1951) coefficient, and to introduce Debreu distance indicator in free trade agreement (FTA) effect measures. In the meanwhile, FTA negotiations in Asia developed very fast in the past decade which made it important to evaluate how far Asia is already surrogatetrade bloc. This paper uses a fifteen-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost to numerically calculate Debreu distance between present situation and potential Asia trade blocs, so as to evaluate these Asia FTA effects. Our calculation results reveal that all Asia involved countries will gain from Asia trade bloc arrangements unless these FTAs can only eliminate tariffs. These countries' gain will increase as non-tariff elimination deeps. Larger countries will gain more than small countries. Asia FTA, Asia Union and RCEP will benefit member countries more than ASEAN+3. Global free trade will gain all countries the most.