中国人民大学韩少华：调和哈耶克和凯恩斯的意见衰退

　　中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院韩少华作了一场题为“调和哈耶克和凯恩斯的意见衰退”的讲座，中国人民大学“汉青经济与金融高级研究院”是中国人民大学顺应国际经济学科改革趋势，建立的新型研究与教育基地。它将在新体制下融会国际师资、借鉴国外研究与教学模式，实现“放眼国际、立足本土”的办学特色。讲座的主要内容是：

　　经济衰退的房子，耐用消费品和商业资本的快速积累时期后经常发生。这一观察结果导致了一些经济学家，最值得注意的是哈耶克得出结论，认为经济衰退主要是反映清算需要从过去的过度投资导致周期。相比之下，自从凯恩斯的工作，许多经济学家都认为经济衰退是缺乏需求期间，应该由激进的财政政策来抵消。在本文中，我们重新审视经济衰退的设置，其中的价格是灵活的，但因为不是所有的交易都通过集中市场协调清算观点。我们说明为什么清算会产生期间之内，经济运行尤其是低效，剩余未开发的，当经济继承了太多的资本货物的个体之间有很多社会所期望的交易。

　　原文：Recessions often happen after periods of rapid accumulation of houses, consumer durables and business capital. This observation has led some economists, most notably Friedrich Hayek, to conclude that recessions mainly reflect periods of needed liquidation resulting from past over-investment. In contrast, ever since the work of Keynes, many economists have viewed recessions as periods of deficient demand that should be countered by activist fiscal policy. In this paper we reexamine the liquidation perspective of recessions in a setup where prices are flexible but where not all trades are coordinated by centralized markets. We show why liquidations can produce periods where the economy functions particularly inefficiently, with many socially desirable trades between individuals remaining unexploited when the economy inherits too many capital goods.